North Star Solar Photovoltaic Network News: Looking forward to the photovoltaic industry in 2020, the single crystal route will become the absolute mainstream, and Perc batteries will also occupy more than 90% of the market share, without the disputes over the technical route; without the swaying policy, There will be a baptism of the entire industry, and demand will develop steadily (150GW). The industry will undoubtedly continue to concentrate on oligarchs. Even the price of photovoltaic products will also be the year with the smallest decline. Perhaps only four words can describe the 2020 The photovoltaic industry is that: bland.
(Source: micro-channel public number "SolarWit" Author: Solarwit governance rain)
一、Photovoltaic industry curse, module price × GW number = output value has not increased in ten years
1、The cyclic nature of the photovoltaic industry
This is a heart-breaking fact for photovoltaics. I have not dared to disclose it for many years. That is, since 2008, the output value of the photovoltaic industry has not increased. In 2008, the global module shipments exceeded 10 GW. The module prices of the year ＞ 20 yuan / watt; module shipments in 2019 exceed 120GW, and the current module price is less than 1.8 yuan / watt. Shipments have increased more than ten times in more than ten years, but the price of modules is only less than one tenth of that year. Many people think of the photovoltaic industry as a growth industry, but this is very dangerous because it is actually a cyclical industry. In the past few years, the growth of some companies has come from the changes in the industrial structure and the increase in industry concentration, not the growth of the industry itself. If you understand this, you should be able to realize that no matter how enviable the growth of the past few years, as photovoltaic people, we will eventually escape the fate of the cycle. I often feel that at the peak of my energy and brainpower, I devote all of my energy to the research and practice of the photovoltaic industry. Even if I work well in this industry, my highest achievement can only be based on Figures like President Zhen Guo and Zhong Dong are examples, and there is still a considerable distance from entrepreneurs like Ma Yun and Ren Zhengfei. This is the ceiling that I set from the beginning of my selection and entry. I think this is not pessimism, but knowing fate.
2. Demand in 2020 can reach more than 155GW
Understanding the periodic nature of the photovoltaic industry, and understanding the functional relationship of module price × GW number = ten years unchanged, not only let us know the fate of pessimism, but also help us analyze the photovoltaic industry in 2020. For the world in 2020, The demand for photovoltaics is at least 155GW. I don't even have to analyze every specific market, I can pat my head optimistically and come to a conclusion. The reason is also very simple. The price of Perc modules has dropped from 2.2 yuan at the beginning of 2019 to the current 1.7 yuan / watt, a decline of more than 20%, so the demand for GW data must increase by at least 25% to meet the constant output value of the industry.
The process of this conclusion seems to be arbitrary, but according to my forecasting practice of the industry over the past three years, everyone will find that its accuracy is much higher than the prediction conclusions of those institutions that conduct serious and one-by-one market analysis. Based on the decline in component prices this year to predict the growth of the industry in the next year, this simple and seemingly lazy prediction method, I have tried and tested repeatedly.
3. 2021 will be a small year for component auxiliary materials
We again use the functional relationship of the industry output value that has not changed for ten years to analyze the industry trend from 2020 to 2021. Since the photovoltaic industry will no longer have significant technological changes in 2020, there is very limited price reduction space for other main and auxiliary materials except for monocrystalline silicon wafers. The year is likely to be the year in which the price of photovoltaic products fell the least in the history of the photovoltaic industry. Now the Perc module is 1.7 yuan, and by the end of 2020, the module price may still be stubbornly maintained at the position of 1.55 yuan / watt, with a decrease of <10% throughout the year. According to the previous functional relationship again, this means that the demand growth of the entire industry in 2021 will be very poor, and the growth rate will also be less than 10%. Although our module shipments can achieve 155GW in 2020, by 2021 shipments may only remain at the level of 170GW. At the moment I researched and learned that many auxiliary material factories are doing extremely well, and they have pressed the fast-forward key to expand production. Many auxiliary material capacity release points are in 2021. The slow release of superimposed capacity will eventually make auxiliary materials. At some point in 2021, we will have a small year.
In truth, the players that have really benefited in the past four years are auxiliary materials. The violent technological revolution in the four main sequence industrial links of silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules has brought about efficiency improvements, productivity innovations, and cost declines. The result was round after round of price killing, silicon materials fell from 160 yuan in 2017 to 70 yuan now; silicon wafers fell from 6 yuan in 2017 to less than three yuan now; batteries from 2 yuan in 2017 It fell to 0.9 yuan, and the overall price of auxiliary materials has not dropped significantly. The cost of auxiliary materials in modules has become higher and higher. The cost of polycrystalline module auxiliary materials has finally exceeded 50% in history this year. Material is the real growth industry in the past few years. The good days of the auxiliary material factory in the past few years have essentially come from the self-sacrifice of silicon materials, silicon wafers, and battery chips. The vigorous price war has driven the rapid growth of industry demand, which has brought a happy and sweet day for auxiliary material companies. , And the mediocre photovoltaic industry in 2020 will also make the days of auxiliary materials factories calm.
By the way, I recently saw a serious forecast by some institutions that the module price in 2022 will be less than 1 yuan / watt, which is purely nonsense. Now the price and cost ratio of auxiliary materials for photovoltaic modules has exceeded 50%. However, component auxiliary materials such as glass, EVA, and aluminum frame have commodity attributes. Its price trend will be more related to the economic environment, and the price reduction space is limited. We ca n’t take it for granted that the price of components will be taken for granted in the future. The rate of price reduction is still very fast. Just as the industry theme in 2020 is bland, how can there be room for cost reduction without a technological revolution? Where does the cost drop significantly without the price of <1 yuan / watt?
二、Seesaw of silicon materials and silicon wafers
1, 2020 silicon material first squat and then jump, no pole Thai
For silicon materials, is it a year of 2019? The production capacity is released continuously throughout the year, and the prices continue to fall. In the face of Tongwei, Daquan, Xinte, and GCL ’s unprecedented new capacity of more than 200,000 tons, we have witnessed again A round of cyclical troughs in the silicon industry.
2020 is a year in Thailand. Thanks to the overwhelming price this year, there is no new production expansion plan for silicon materials in the whole 2019. There is no new start-up project. Instead, many industry colleagues have left sadly and benefited at the same time. Based on the profitability of Perc cells from 1.3 to 0.9, silicon wafers from 3.1 to 2.5 (expected price) make the expected growth rate of silicon materials in 2020 considerable. Looking at the silicon material industry in 2020 as a whole, although there are unfavorable factors that Eastern hopes to develop capacity, the demand growth rate is greater than the capacity growth rate, and monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity is excessive. Occupying the absolute mainstream will lead to passive production of some old silicon materials. Withdrawal, the overall view of the silicon material industry should be squat first, then jump, or not.
2、Monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity of 191GW, penetration rate of 100%
Since the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers was adjusted to a price of 3.15 yuan in July 2018, the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has not changed significantly for 17 months. The only price change was an adjustment from 3.15 yuan to 3.07 yuan in April this year. The reason for this price adjustment is that the value-added tax has been reduced from 16% to 13%, which means that the price without tax for single-crystal silicon wafers has remained unchanged for 17 months. During this period, the price of compact silicon material dropped from 96 yuan to 72 yuan; the diameter of the diamond wire dropped from 65um to 55um or even thinner, and the price of the diamond wire fell from 0.2 yuan + / meter to 0.1+. As a result, Longji's monocrystalline silicon wafers The gross profit margin has climbed from the lowest 15% + to 35% +. In 17 months, the monocrystalline silicon wafer has changed from a small profit to a small profit to a thick profit and a huge profit. The result of excess profits is that we are ushering in an unprecedented wave of monocrystalline silicon wafer expansion. Looking forward to 2020, monocrystalline silicon wafers will be the most surplus link in the industry, with production capacity exceeding 191GW and actual output reaching 280.6 100 million pieces, even if the demand next year is even better, it will not stop the pace of excess monocrystalline silicon wafers.
1. It is expected that the price of single crystal wafers will start to loose as soon as the second quarter of next year. Eliminating diseases such as shreds and illnesses is like a mountain crash. Once the price appears loose, the price changes are often cliff-like and avalanche-like. This is mainly because in the excess industry pattern, prices will necessarily seek the support of the manufacturers with the highest marginal cash costs, and because the wafer capacity is too surplus next year, the price war is likely to slam the cash cost of new capacity. This will be a Very low prices, single crystal silicon wafers <2.5 yuan in 2020 is expected.
2. There is also another impact of excess capacity, that is, square single crystals will be popularized. I have analyzed the economic value of square single crystals many times. It is economical to measure square single crystal silicon wafers at the angle of the power station. The conclusion is clear, correct, unquestionable, and irrefutable. The failure of Fang Jingjing to gain popularity in 2019 is not due to my analysis, but because the monocrystalline silicon wafer capacity in 2019 is in short supply. The production of single crystals will cause a loss of more than 8% of production capacity. If the promotion of single crystals at this time will delay earning richer profits, and the industry pattern of excess single crystal silicon wafers will be popularized in 2020. It will be logical and natural, because the promotion of the square single crystal silicon standard in 2020 will be the most effective magic weapon for leading companies to actively reduce their production capacity. It can also open up the cost gap between the first and second line silicon manufacturers, so whether it is 158.75 Or 166, or even 210 will usher in the era of square films.