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Photovoltaic 2020 outlook: strong overseas demand is expecte

Release time:2019-12-28 15:14Popularity:

       North Star Solar Photovoltaic Network News: Overseas photovoltaic markets will maintain a high level of prosperity in 2019, and new installed capacity is expected to exceed 90GW throughout the year. The price of modules plummeted after the "531" New Deal, which greatly stimulated demand in overseas markets. In addition, the elimination of double-reverse in Europe in 2018 is an important source of increasing overseas demand so far.

(Source: WeChat public account "Qing Niu Fu Shi" ID: Junreynn)

       Looking forward to 2020, the overseas photovoltaic market will likely remain high. There are several main reasons: 1. The price of photovoltaic group prices is still falling, and there is still room for decline. As the "growth cycle sector" of the photovoltaic industry, the decline in prices will continue to stimulate demand. 2. The EU market benefits from the guidance on the proportion of renewable energy generation; the US ITC policy is extended again for 5 years; the import tariffs on Indian components will be reduced next February and is expected to be cancelled in August next year; the volume of tenders in the Middle East market is expected to rise rapidly Become a major market. With reference to the predictions of major institutions, the number of new PV installations overseas will maintain a growth of 15% -20% in 2020. Not only will it exceed 100GW for the first time, it is also expected to directly challenge 110GW.

Expected to exceed 90GW in 2019

       After the introduction of the 531 policy in 2018, the domestic photovoltaic market demand has dropped sharply, and the price of the photovoltaic industry chain has fallen sharply. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells have fallen by 30-40%. Among them, the price of monocrystalline PERC modules has dropped from 2.66 yuan / watt At the end of 2018, it was 2.25 yuan / watt, a decrease of 15%. The decline in installed costs, combined with the cancellation of European double countermeasures, has directly triggered the explosion of overseas markets from Q3 2018 to the present. In 2018, 59 GW of new PV installations were added, a year-on-year increase of 34.09%.
       It is worth noting that after entering the 2019Q3, photovoltaic modules once again ushered in a large price reduction, which has fallen by more than 12% in just three months from July. As of December 21, 2019, the latest 315 / 375W single-crystal PERC module was quoted at 1.77 yuan / W, a 21.33% drop compared to the end of 2018.
       Falling prices have brought even stronger demand. According to preliminary statistics from customs data, in the first three quarters of 2019, benefiting from the boost in overseas market demand, the total scale of China's module exports was nearly 50GW, an increase of 80% year-on-year. If it is assumed that the number of module exports in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 16.65GW in a single quarter of 2019Q1-Q3, China's module exports in 2019 will be about 66.6GW, a year-on-year increase of 60%. (See Figure 1)
Figure 1: China PV module export data since 2015

Data source: China Merchants Securities
       It is calculated by two methods: 1. Assuming that the proportion of export modules in new overseas installed capacity in 2019 remains unchanged, according to the new overseas PV grid-connected capacity of about 60GW in 2018, we will get about 96GW of new overseas photovoltaic installed capacity in 2019. A year-on-year increase of 62.7%. 2. In 2019, Q1, Q2, and Q3 overseas installed capacity were 22GW, 21GW, and 21GW, respectively, an increase of 60%, 86%, and 54% year-on-year. If in accordance with the rule that the proportion of Q4 installed capacity is higher in recent years, it is not a big problem that the Q4 installed capacity is estimated to exceed 25GW, which is about 89GW for the whole year, an increase of about 51% year-on-year.
Figure 2: Overseas PV installed data since 2011

Data source: HIS, China Merchants Securities
Components still have room to fall

       Including Germany, Australia, India, and many countries and regions in the Middle East, parity has been achieved. If the prices of modules continue to fall, photovoltaic advantages will become more prominent and market demand will be further stimulated. In 2020, the core price reduction of the photovoltaic industry chain will come from the silicon wafer link.
       Competition in the photovoltaic industry chain will enter a new stage in 2020. In 2019, the market share of single crystals has exceeded 63%, and the single crystal dividend period has passed. In the future, it will become increasingly weak to increase performance by eroding the market share of polycrystallines. Mutual competition among monocrystalline enterprises has officially begun. The first link is silicon.
       Since 2018, PERC has expanded its production on a large scale, and the demand for monocrystalline wafers has exploded, which has stimulated monocrystalline wafer factories to significantly expand their production capacity. At the end of 2019, the capacity of monocrystalline wafers will reach 123GW. Longji, Zhonghuan, Jinke and other major manufacturers are determined to expand production. It is expected that the nominal capacity of monocrystalline wafers will reach 175GW by the end of 2020, exceeding demand, and the supply will gradually become loose. Price reduction will be on the agenda. . (It is worth noting that most organizations have subjectively ignored the existence of polycrystalline capacity when doing wafer capacity statistics.)
Figure 3: Summary of wafer capacity

       In addition, this year, Zhonghuan, Longji and Jinko launched large-size silicon wafers such as M12, M6 and G1 respectively. Next year, monocrystalline silicon wafers will no longer be the monolithic M2 and M4. In addition, the battery and module production line is generally 6,000 pieces per hour. After the silicon wafer becomes larger, the fixed costs such as depreciation, interest, and labor remain unchanged. Consumables such as junction boxes do not increase in proportion to the area of ​​the silicon wafer. The cost of silicon has fallen. According to the calculation of China Merchants Securities, the introduction of M6 can reduce the component cost by 5 cents / watt, and the introduction of M12 can reduce the component cost by 13 cents / watt.
       Finally, the current mainstream battery shipments are at 22%. Through the introduction of MBB and other innovative technologies, it is expected to increase to 22.5% next year. Leading companies are expected to achieve 23%, and component production costs can be reduced by 2.22-4.34 cents / watt.
       Taken as a whole, there is a room for at least 15 cents per watt of module cost reduction. After considering 13% VAT, there is a room for 17 cents per watt of module price reduction. If M12 large silicon wafers can be successfully imported, the cost reduction space is expected to reach 30 cents /watt. This means that component prices will decline by at least 10% next year.

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